I found the following statement confusing and I think we are saying two
different things based on different interpretations of well known facts.
I thought you were meaning the same thing as I but on closer inspection
ROG:
"I accept your numbers on coal and petroleum, and will even consede
[sic]that as a worst case scenario, it is possible that the trend of
finding reserves at a faster rate than we use it could suddenly reverse
itself on all three resources at the same time. Doubtful, but not
impossible."
Andy responded:
Right, doubtful, but not impossible. Or we could say extremely unlikely.
Or When Pigs fly...
Andy clarifies:
The trend for discovering reserves is at a very constant historical
rate. For coal and petroleum, the discoveries are increasing at a
decreasing rate. It has been estimated that we are approximately 5 - 10
years away from the peak of this curve. What this means is that every
year beyond this point less reserves will be discovered. This is such
an established trend that I thought this was what you were referring to.
Thus, my comment that it may be possible for a new trajectory away from
this historical trend, but it is highly unlikely, based on the fact that
we have not deviated from it since World war II, and new technologies
are assumed into the preservation of this trend.
Another relevant statistic is that 50 years ago, for every 1 barrel used
in the investment of oil recovery and processing 50 barrels were made
available for use in the economy. Over time as oil is recovered from
more difficult terrain and under the oceans, this ratio has decreased
significantly. Today for every 1 barrel used in the investment of oil
recovery less than two barrels are made available for the economy. This
statistic is not reflected in prices. (Do you know why?) Prices may
continue to fall as this ratio continues to shrink. WHen the ratio
becomes one to one, petroleum is no longer a viable input into our economy.
MOQ.ORG - http://www.moq.org
Mail Archive - http://alt.venus.co.uk/hypermail/moq_discuss/
MD Queries - horse@darkstar.uk.net
To unsubscribe from moq_discuss follow the instructions at:
http://www.moq.org/md/subscribe.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Fri Oct 25 2002 - 16:06:16 BST