Dear Roger,
You write 24/8 10:13 -0400:
'If we want to invest in R&D into clean, affordable, renewable sources of
energy, I suggest we do so directly.'
Good suggestion. I haven't got much to invest in this type of R&D however. A
couple of thousands Euro's in liquidities. Maybe a bit more if I could
convince the various institutions managing the pension premiums I paid to do
so on my behalf. (Little chance -to the extent that they are not already
doing so- for they have to keep in mind the investment and profit wishes of
a lot more premium payers.) Maybe you have a little more, but together we
still don't have enough to get much R&D off the ground.
So we will have to convince others with larger R&D budgets to invest in this
type of R&D. That's one of the things the Dutch environmentalist movement is
doing on my behalf: trying to convince Shell for instance to direct more
than the present tiny percentage of its investments this way. Shell of
course points to its competitors, to lack of infrastructure for other types
of energy-bearers, to a market that cannot be forced to grow faster than it
does (read: consumers that are used to filling their cars at -in the
Netherlands mainly- Shell stations with petrol and are not easily induced to
try revolutionary new types of transport of which only prototypes exist,
certainly not while Shell is advertising a marginally less polluting type of
petrol as vééééry environmentally friendly in order to defend its market
share against competitors).
So we need not just a national government (for Shell's competitors, energy
infrastructure and consumer habits are all very much globalized) but global
governance to take away these more or less real obstacles for a change in
direction of Shell's investments. We don't have a global government however,
that can set goals, can coordinate the efforts of energy producers,
automobile industry, infrastructure builders etc. and can carefully urge
lazy consumers (aka voters on which they are dependent, therefore care is
needed) by taxing desirable behavior less and undesirable behavior more.
So we first need to get (as many) national governments (as possible) round a
table to decide on a way to undertake this global governance together. They
are of course trying to shift the blame and the heaviest burdens on each
other, for they are representing national interests. To stay in power they
have to show that they are getting their constituencies no worse (or
preferably a better) deal than those of other nations are getting. If they
can get away with it they will -after having been heavily involved in the
negotiations- refuse to keep agreements or slow down implementation as long
as possible.
In short: your suggestion is a simplified account of what is actually
happening, of a process which unevitably includes events like 'Kyoto' and
poor compromises which no-one is really happy with, but that nevertheless
are the only way forward I know.
I think the effects of global warming will be catastrophic for large groups
of people, mildly detrimental for the majority and beneficial for a much
smaller minority. I don't pretend to be able to forecast with any degree of
certainty whether global society will hold under the resulting stresses or
not.
As for the 'cost-free morals' of Europe leaving military effort to the USA:
what about the cost of spending more on development aid and of setting up
global institutions even if they can be at times detrimental to also
European own interests?
Military effort on a global scale may seem necessary at times (as in Iraq),
but only because not enough effort has been spent earlier on global
cooperation and because effort has been spent wrongly on safeguarding own
interests (by supporting the wrong guys). And I don't have the impression
that military effort is more than a very temporary solution. In Europe we
are still grateful for American military help in defeating Hitler, but the
real solution for the problem was the European integration that followed
(facilitated by Marshall aid, to be sure).
With friendly greetings,
Wim
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