Hey everyone,
I have been trying to carefully balance optimism in social progress with
recognition that many solutions seem to lead to new problems. The same
problem occurs in biological evolution. The name for the phenomenon is the
Red Queen effect, taken from Alice In Wonderland (in Wonderland you must run
faster and faster just to stay in place).
In biology, it is often argued that evolution isn't progressive because of
the fact that as the species gains in average fitness over time, that the
increases in population and increases in other species just increases the
level of competition. After three and a half billion years of struggling to
survive and reproduce, living things still can't last all that long. Species
have progressed in terms of being better competitors that are fairly well
adapted to their changing environments, but this progress never leads to
immortality or even to a waiver to get out of the next round of competition.
A similar problem exists in social progress. This issue muddies a lot of the
discussion. Most of us agree that, long term, societies have been getting
better at providing health, wealth, education and opportunity for more and
more people. Furthermore, society has progressed to the entrance of the
intellectual level in developed societies. The problem is again with unabated
overpopulation. Regardless of how much additional population a society can
support, some societies keep growing beyond it. This is a very dangerous
situation that can lead to ecological and/or social disaster.
As Erin writes, there are no shortcuts. We need to:
1) Control population growth (preferably via empowering women and somehow
discouraging large families)
2) Continue to progress socially and intellectually in developed countries
while continuing to control population (developed countries are usually able
to manage growth)
3) Help developing countries to learn how to develop themselves in their own
special ways
4) Mitigate any ecological or environmental damage during the transition
phase to a stable world population and more equitable social levels.
Is there anything I am missing?
Rog
PS -- Erin, I agree with your reluctance to follow Pirsig all the way on the
gun and authoritative control thing. I think Pirsig is a bit scarred on the
issue.
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