From: Wim Nusselder (wim.nusselder@antenna.nl)
Date: Thu Dec 16 2004 - 07:19:27 GMT
Dear Platt,
You asked 13 Dec 2004 07:52:49 -0500 for my comments on an article by
ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph about 'the Dutch middle classes ...
leaving the country in droves for the first time in living memory'.
The only half-truth I read in that article (or the part you quoted) was that
'more people left the Netherlands in 2003 than arrived'. According to the
official statistics the Volkskrant published yesterday, immigration and
emigration were roughly equal in 2003. In 2004 there will be an emigration
surplus of 18.000 people. The last time the Netherlands had such an
emigration surplus was in the 1950-ties.
On a total of 111.000 emigrants there will certainly be a percentage for
whom part of their motives can be interpreted as dissatisfaction with the
Dutch 'multicultural experiment'. Dutch statisticians explain the temporary
disbalance from the weak economy (unemployed migrants returning to their
country of origin) and from increasing numbers of retired Dutch who can
afford to spend their old age in a more attractive climate (e.g. Spain) and
find less and less obstactles on their way because of EU integration. Their
prognosis is that emigration and immigration will balance again in 2010,
with a slow rise to an immigration suplus of some 25.000 per year in 2050.
So you could compare it partly with population movements between different
states of the USA.
On the whole this picture seems quite healthy to me for the most densily
populated country of Europe (population will rise to a maximum of 17 million
in 2035, life expectancy will be 82,5 years for women and 79,5 years for men
in 2050) which has to counter the 'greying' of the population (25% 65+ in
2040, now 14%) with relatively young immigrants who get more children during
the first generations before they are integrated. Some 120.000 immigrants
per year (the average for 2010 - 2050 the statisticians expect) can be
easily accomodated on a population of 17 million and integrated in a few
generations time. By 2050 non-Western ex-immigrants are expected to comprise
17% of the population with an additional 13% consisting of ex-immigrants of
Western origin.
The picture for me is: Western European population is mixing (because of EU
integration) and in periods of strong economic growth immigrants from North
Africa and Middle East are attracted. As I wrote before the Dutch have never
been 'a tight-knit Nordic tribe'. We have always been to open because of
international trade (a third of our GNP) and the importance of foreign
language education in Dutch schools. The only society I know that comes
close to that description is Iceland.
There has been some talk in the media in the last weeks (after the
assassination of Theo van Gogh) about increased interest for emigration
(registered by embassies of countries like Canada and Australia. It is
unlikely that such temporary sentiments will have more than a marginal
effect on emigation statistics of a whole year. In the end emigration and
immigration streams are determined more by economic perspectives and by the
dire need of people fleeing war than by the level of satisfaction with
particular societies (or any other conscious motivation).
A last quote from the expectations of official Dutch statisticians: 'from
2010 onward non-Western immigration will grow again and especially the Asian
part. Immigration will be mainly "demand pulled" to fill jobs becoming
vacant in a greying society, but the Asian part will be mainly formed by
Iraqis and Afghans, although increasingly Indians will be recruited by Dutch
firms. From within the EU Poles will be an increasing percentage of
immigrants.'
The idea voices by Ellen Bles in the quote from the Telegraph that 'People
can come and live here illegally and get payments' is simply not true. They
can get free medical aid if really necessary, but even that has been made
more and more difficult in recent years, because everyone asking for any
public service has to give a personal registration number with tax
authorities and population registration authorities (the number in my
passport is the same as the one on my tax form). It might have been true to
some extent say 20 years ago (and the myth is kept alive among right-wing
voters who want non-Western immigration even further curtailed and social
security to become less), but only because computer systems were not
advanced enough back then to check all those files of all public authorities
against each other to determine whether everyone profiting from social
security benefits really had a right to them.
I would still appreciate to get your comments on my 13 Dec 2004 12:17:47
+0100 posting and return to our controversy whether globalizing social
security would be a proper way to counter terrorism versus would imply
giving in to terrorist blackmail.
With friendly greetings,
Wim
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